Stephen Harper’s decision to shut down parliament has been met with criticism from all sides of the political spectrum. Is it a hugely political move? Yes. Is it to cover up the Afghan prisoner issue (that shouldn’t be an issue)? Yes. Has it hurt him? By all accounts, dramatically. The below poll by The Strategic Counsel explains how badly (source).

So where does that put us now. To understand that we have to start by understanding Harper’s strategy over that past 12 months. Since that ugly Liberal episode that will hereby be referred to as the ‘Dion Debacle’ the Liberals have struggled to maintain their image as the official opposition in Canada. This is largely due to the bill scheduling enforced by the Cons. Every time that the Liberals promise that they are going to bring down Horrible Harper and his America Loving Conservatives, they are faced with a confidence vote in the house that they can’t find the gall to vote against.

A prime example of this was the Home Renovation Tax Credit (I’ve written about this before). Its part of the economic recovery plan and returns up to $1,300 to homeowners who renovate their homes (homepage). They had been advertising the Tax Credit for quite a long time and it had been one of Harper’s promises in his 2008 election (if I remember correctly). The catch is that it was never actually approved by the House of Commons. After a couple of weeks of Iggy running his mouth about how they would ‘take the next opportunity’ to bring down the government, the Conservatives put the HRTC on the floor and made it a confidence motion. The Libs were now faced with a difficult decision: be yellow bellied politicians who can’t be taken seriously or fight an election with the public wondering who took away all that money they were promised. Tough choice, but time and time again in this situation, and others the Liberals have chosen to step down after talking themselves up. They are self defeating their desired image of being a strong opposition party.

You can turn around and say that this is another example of Harper using dirty political tactics to score political points and I would agree with you. He’s hardly the only one to do so however, and I’d argue that the Libs have historically been worse. I was alive to watch Chretien and the AdScam fun. Oh and Trudeau nationalizing a provinces industry to score political points in Ontario and Quebec, that’s not underhanded at all.

The real risk here for Canadians of all stripes is that Prorogation becomes an accepted convention in Canadian politics. If Iggy chooses yet again that he isn’t ready for an election and allows the Conservatives to steamroll him and his spineless party, he opens the door for future political parties to use prorogation as a political tool, something that is good for no Canadians.

Iggy came to campus last week and to much rave review. I couldn’t go but I heard that he talked about a lot of interesting stuff. There was some rabble there too. I didn’t hear from anyone who went however if he committed to actually being an opposition party and bringing down the government. No surprise there, all politicians are pragmatic like he is. You know he is thinking it though; the stakes are so much higher this time. He has damaged the Conservatives more in January than at any time in the last 12 months. He is at as good a position as he is ever going to be. He needs to force an election after the prorogation is over to show 1) that he has grown a pair of cahones 2) that prorogation is not an acceptable convention in Canadian politics and 3) that the Liberal party is confident enough in itself to actually act as the opposition Canadians want (even me).

Iggy has seen the flop, turn, and river. Its time for him to show his cards to see whether or not he has the full house he keeps talking about.